A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
